The Iowa women have proven they can compete with anybody — but compete and winning are two very different things.
All nine of the Hawkeyes’ losses in the Big Ten have come by nine or less points. Six of those nine have come by five or less, and the black and gold are 1-6 in games decided by that margin. In those losses, Iowa’s shot 29% from the field in the final two minutes of regulation/overtime.
The Hawkeyes’ 3-9 record in conference games decided by single digits is cause for concern heading into the NCAA tournament. Jan Jensen’s squad has had nine shot attempts to tie or take the lead in the final 30 seconds of a game — and missed each one.
Taking a deeper dive into this trend, Iowa’s not generating enough quality shots at the end of games. I decided to review every instance and briefly describe each look the Hawkeyes have created.
#1. Michigan State 67, Iowa 66, 11 seconds to play: Sydney Affolter drives to the basket, appears to potentially have an open outlet to Kylie Feuerbach, her layup attempt gets blocked.
#2. Michigan State 67, Iowa 66, 8 seconds to play: Lucy Olsen takes the handoff from Hannah Stuelke, pump fakes and shoots a heavily contested jump shot from the deep mid-range.
#3: Nebraska 77, Iowa 77, 2.8 seconds to play: Aaliyah Guyton catches the inbounds pass, drives hard to the rim and pushes a moderately contested layup.
#4: Nebraska 87, Iowa 84, 6.9 seconds to play: Down three and defending the basketball, Iowa does an incredible job forcing a turnover, pushing the ball up court, and Sydney Affolter gets a good look at a three from the wing.
#5: Oregon 50, Iowa 49, 9 seconds to play: Sydney Affolter drives inside, kicks it to Addi O’Grady for a clean look outside the free throw line.
#6: UCLA 65, Iowa 62, 17 seconds to play: Lucy Olsen hoists a three roughly a foot beyond the arc. Hannah Stuelke recovers the offensive rebound; Olsen puts up another triple and is fouled. She made all three free throws to tie the game.
#7: UCLA 67, Iowa 65, 3.8 seconds to play: Sydney Affolter inbounds the ball to Addi O’Grady, who has her three-point attempt blocked by Lauren Betts. Jan Jensen revealed O’Grady was the third read on the play.
#8: Ohio State 60, Iowa 59, 6.7 seconds to play: Sydney Affolter inbounds the ball, takes the handoff from Hannah Stuelke to the basket. While it appeared she may have been fouled on her left arm, the layup attempt was blocked.
#9: Ohio State 60, Iowa 59, 0.7 seconds to play: Lucy Olsen finds Hannah Stuelke on the baseline, who quickly puts up a deep two contested by Cotie McMahon.
That’s the list. Again, each of Iowa’s nine attempts to tie or take the lead in the final 30 seconds of a game this season were missed. And the Hawkeyes’ result in each game was a loss.
After Iowa’s defeat by Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament, Jan Jensen admitted there’s always second-guessing when the result of the game doesn’t go your way.
“I’m guessing Geno Auriemma if he loses a game, he might do that too,” Jensen said. “I just wish we did this a little better, but I think that’s just sport.”
It’s possible this is something Jensen’s figuring out on the fly as a first-year coach, but getting the right shot at the end of a game is going to be pivotal for a team who’s likely not going to be blowing out other tournament-level teams next week.
The great ones can identify the right matchup against the right defense at the right time. Iowa doesn’t have the penultimate closer anymore, but even those teams had to toil in the mud multiple times on their way to the national championship game.
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