DES MOINES, Iowa — It has been a relatively snow-free winter season in central Iowa so far, with our winter season (December through February) coming in first so far for lack of snowfall. Of course, we have another month and a half to go in meteorological winter.

Below, a list of the days we’ve seen measurable snow so far this season:

Areas to our north and south have certainly seen more snow this winter than we have in most of Iowa, as seen in the images below:

As of today, the closest deeper snowpack can be found over northeastern Kansas and central Missouri, with parts of Iowa having little-to-no snow on the ground.

Many midwestern cities have seen more snowflakes than Des Moines has this winter. The jet stream setup and the paths of associated areas of low pressure/storms have kept most of the accumulation to the north and south of our state.

We have a tiny chance of seeing a few flurries Wednesday evening as a warm front pushes across the state (below). The only other small chance of snow during the next week comes the following Wednesday, as seen in the extended forecast graphic.

Things do look to change by the end of the month, at least a bit. Below, a “plume” forecast graphic from the European Ensemble model. This shows various snowfall forecasts going out to the right through time, from various runs of the European model that have been “tweaked” a bit. The idea behind an ensemble forecasting system is that if a majority of models come to the same conclusion, you can be more sure of the projection. The green line below is the mean forecast snowfall of all 50 ensemble members through January 30th. If correct, it only gives us another couple of inches in Des Moines over the next two weeks.

Another look at the ensemble members. Notice that as you get beyond January 26th, more of the members produce snowfall output through the end of the month.

Below is the ensemble mean forecast snowfall over the next month, which is fun to look at, but probably not incredibly reliable. Bottom line: it appears we may start seeing a bit more snowfall in central Iowa by the end of January.