AMES, Iowa — When the Des Moines Register released a poll last weekend, it had a surprise. They showed the Harris campaign up three points over Trump. When the voting was counted, Trump won by 13 points.
At the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women in Politics they study all elements of political races, including polling.
Karen Kedrowski is the Director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center.
“One of the things that we’ve really seen since 2016 is called the ‘Shy Trump Voter,’ so they’ve been systematically underestimating the degree of Trump support,” said Kedrowski. “The reason for that is a little hard to pin down. Are they more likely to refuse to participate in surveys? Are they not on the list of probable or likely voters because they they are not as active? Or is there some sort of like social pressure to not say that you’re supporting Trump.”
Pollsters also face challenges just getting in touch with voters. Most people are using cellphones. So pollsters now target area code, and three digit prefix, with the last four numbers randomly. But sometimes, even if they reach a real person, they don’t want to be surveyed.
“You know there is the social acceptability by us that you find in polls asking questions about race and gender in the role of women and affirmative action and things like that, and maybe that’s some of what’s going on here,” said Kedrowski. “As consumers we’re being surveyed to death, how many times do we get an email saying tell us how we’re doing or a political organization just sounds like another one of these surveys. It’s easier just to say no.”
Kedrowski praised Ann Selzer and the Iowa Poll saying even though it’s a tough job the information is still needed. It’s used to help target the right message, and to show support also can benefit fundraising.
“You know sometimes you just miss, and that doesn’t mean that had the election been held on Saturday, when they conducted that all, that it would not have been a closer race,” said Kedrowski “She still has a wonderful reputation. We’re very fortunate in Iowa to have a poll of that caliber.”
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