DES MOINES, Iowa — Meteorological winter is just one month away, and we’re getting a better idea of what winter could look like in central Iowa.

The official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook shows “equal chances” of above or below-average temperatures for central Iowa. The NOAA outlook also shows “equal chances” of a wet or dry winter. Northeastern Iowa has elevated probabilities for a wetter-than-normal winter.

So what does “equal chances” mean? It’s essentially a meteorological coinflip, with no clear signals of an average, wet, dry, warm, or cold winter. However, there are other signals meteorologists can look to in order to know what this winter could look like.

One way is looking at the waters in the equatorial Pacific. This year, the trade winds appear to be strengthening, which will result in more upwelling in the eastern Pacific. This pattern leads to colder waters in the eastern Pacific and is known as La Niña.

La Niña can lead to other trends around the world. In the United States, this can mean colder conditions in the Northwest, wetter conditions in the Great Lakes and West Coast, and dry and warm weather in the South. In a regular La Niña, there isn’t a clear effect in central Iowa.

However, the strength of the La Niña can change how it affects central Iowa. This winter, the eastern Pacific is transitioning from a neutral phase into a weak La Niña. In the past, this has been connected to snowier winters. Weak La Niñas can also lead to more cold air outbreaks.

So while the official outlook shows “equal chances,” or a coin flip, for what kind of winter we’ll see, there are some signs that it could be a winter with more snow and occasional cold air outbreaks, especially in January and February.

As always, the WHO 13 weather team will be here to keep you posted with the very latest!