MAXWELL, Iowa — Iowa soybean farmers could face the worst economy since the farm crisis in the 1980s after China halted purchases, according to officials with the Iowa Soybean Association.

Earlier this year, the United States and China placed tariffs on each other’s goods, starting a trade war between the two economic superpowers. According to NBC News, the U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports spiked at 145 percent while China’s tariff on U.S. imports peaked at 125 percent.

In May, President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping announced the first of two 90-day pauses on the tariffs as trade talks continued. The latest tariff truce is expected to expire on November 10.

While the U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports fell to 30 percent, and China’s tariff on U.S imports fell to 10 percent during this truce, the trade war is impacting Iowa’s soybean farmers.

For the first time in 20 years, China has not purchased a single bushel of American soybeans since the harvest began in September. This comes as the ISA estimates nearly 550 million bushels will be harvested this season.

After the 2018 trade war with China, the United States soybean industry has worked to diversify its buyers, according to the ISA’s Senior Director of Market Development, Grant Kimberley.

As a result, Central Iowa soybeans go all over the globe now, from as close as locally and domestically, to Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Egypt, and more.

However, China is the world’s largest soybean buyer, making up 60 percent of the world’s exportable soybeans. The rest of the world combined doesn’t equal China’s demand.

As a result, even though there are other countries Iowa farmers can sell to, without China’s demand, the price of soybeans remains low.

A study published in July by Iowa State University estimates that reciprocal tariffs on China and other key partners could cost Iowa’s soybean industry up to $1.5 billion, plus millions of dollars in additional losses to other state industries like corn, hog, and ethanol.

This comes as expenses for farmers continue to rise on things like fertilizer, seed, and machinery.

Kimberley said this is one of the worst economies for soybean farmers since the farm crisis in the 1980s.

“[In the 1980s,] you had a lot of farmers going out of business, you had a lot of land that had to be sold at rock bottom prices, you had a lot of bankruptcies, and a lot of other socioeconomic problems,” he said. “So whenever people start to say, ‘Hey we’re not there yet but we’re getting on the verge of looking a little like that period of time,’ that really makes you stand up and be a little concerned.”

Kimberley said farm bankruptcies are already starting to take place.

Apart from his work with the Iowa Soybean Association, Kimberley is also a sixth-generation soybean farmer in Maxwell. He said the economic conditions are impacting decisions at his family farm.

“We want to have the ability to continue to pass these farms down and maybe someday my son would like to farm as well, but when we have these tough economic downturns, it makes it really challenging, especially things that are completely outside of the farmer’s control. We have trade disruptions for various reasons,” he said.

Kimberley said some farmers are refraining from purchasing new machinery or upgrading equipment because they are losing money.

Last Wednesday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he is planning an aid package for soybean farmers. He said the money made on tariffs will go to help farmers.

The United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday in an interview with CNBC that an aid package could be expected as early as Tuesday.

While an aid package can help, Kimberley said farmers are mainly hoping for a trade deal to be made with China.

He said it would be ideal for the United States to make a deal soon, because between September and February, North America has dominance over the soybean industry. After February, South American soybean farmers tend to dominate sales.

President Trump’s Truth Social post indicated he will be meeting with Xi in about three weeks.